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What is Forex Volatility?

Volatility can be defined as the rate at which an asset’s price rises or falls, in relation to a set of returns. Volatility is generally measured by checking the standard deviation of the annual returns over a certain time.

Volatility helps you to establish the level of risk of an investment. It is also used to price assets. When volatility is high, there are more substantial risks to trade, and vice versa. However the timeframe of such fluctuations is also taken into consideration since if the price of an asst moves slowly over a period of time, then it is said to have a low volatility.

There are different types of volatility, and by discussing each one of them we can better understand what this concept is all about. It is important for an investor or trader to understand volatility and what it implies since at the end of the day it is a key factor for analysing financial markets properly.

- Implied volatility, this is the estimated volatility of an asset. It shows how the marketplace deems volatility to be like in the future, however there is no indication of the direction in which that asset’s price might move. As bear markets are riskier, implied volatility is generally going to rise in such markets, when compared to bull markets, because there will be more investors who are forecasting that the price will drop in the future.

- Realised or Historical volatility is used to measure statistically the returns from an asset, and how they are dispersed over a given period of time. the average deviation of a financial instrument is used to measure this type of volatility.

Volatility is important as it affects the market sentiment. This is an important part of market analysis. An investor will take volatility into account when making trading decisions, because high levels of volatility generally come with a bigger chance of substantial profits, or considerable losses, due to the higher level of uncertainty. An investor may wish to take the risk to a certain extent, or else back off if the volatility is very high.

Volatility also has an impact on trading costs. The higher the volatility, the bigger the risks, and as a result, the chances of rewards are higher too. High volatility will widen the spreads of the underlying assets.
Volatility may also influence decisions relating to capital allocation, as well as portfolio rebalancing. With less volatile assets, traders tend to allocate a higher portion of their capital as it is safer. Volatility can help to increase the potential for profits if the trader manages to predict short term investments properly.

Considering all of these factors, it is evident that volatility is of critical importance for traders and investors. There are different volatility indicators that one can use so as to determine the best entry and exit points for trades. Some of the most popular ones include Bollinger Bands, ATR and VIX.

The origin of volatility is not that precise and there are a number of theories. Some say that the underlying reason are short sellers, others think that automated trading robots have their fair share of the impact. Others claim that it is all a result of psychological forces that are present in the market, and the investors sentiment and perceptions. Regardless of what or who is behind it, there is no doubt that volatility needs to be considered seriously when trading or investing.