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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 21, 2026 EURUSD
EURUSD:
Preparation of new security measures in France once again brings political risk to the forefront for the euro. Authorities intend to strengthen order maintenance ahead of further protests, while budget issues remain unresolved. For investors, this is a reason to be more cautious with European assets: tension complicates reform implementation and limits capital inflow into the single currency.
German statistics do not yet provide a sufficiently strong counterbalance. The October survey showed an improvement in the assessment of the current situation, but a deterioration in expectations, meaning economic recovery remains slow. Today, speeches by ECB representatives are important: a tougher stance on inflation could support the euro, but it does not eliminate French risks on its own.
The decline in US bond yields dampens demand for the dollar and limits the scale of a potential pair decline. At the same time, the expected Fed pause does not yet mean a rejection of further rate hikes. As long as French tensions persist, their influence allows for a moderate EURUSD decline even with weak dollar momentum; easing the crisis would change this scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1225, SL 1.1250, TP 1.1175
EURUSD:
Preparation of new security measures in France once again brings political risk to the forefront for the euro. Authorities intend to strengthen order maintenance ahead of further protests, while budget issues remain unresolved. For investors, this is a reason to be more cautious with European assets: tension complicates reform implementation and limits capital inflow into the single currency.
German statistics do not yet provide a sufficiently strong counterbalance. The October survey showed an improvement in the assessment of the current situation, but a deterioration in expectations, meaning economic recovery remains slow. Today, speeches by ECB representatives are important: a tougher stance on inflation could support the euro, but it does not eliminate French risks on its own.
The decline in US bond yields dampens demand for the dollar and limits the scale of a potential pair decline. At the same time, the expected Fed pause does not yet mean a rejection of further rate hikes. As long as French tensions persist, their influence allows for a moderate EURUSD decline even with weak dollar momentum; easing the crisis would change this scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1225, SL 1.1250, TP 1.1175
The French crisis hit the euro and stock indices
Unrest in France has become a problem for investors as well. Damaged stores, business restrictions, and political uncertainty have added reasons to sell European stocks. On October 19, the French CAC 40 lost 1,11%, while the German DAX 1,18%.
France is preparing for a new wave of protests. Authorities announced increased security ahead of demonstrations on October 24 following unrest that affected Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and other cities. The curfew helped restore calm, but the threat of further business disruptions remains.
On the markets, tension coexists with recovery attempts. #CAC40 is trading around 7,850.0 points, #DAX30 at 25,416.3 points, EURUSD at 1.1223. Buyers have recovered part of the losses, but French risks continue to limit interest in European assets.
Businesses will have to pay for the consequences
Damage to stores, forced closures, and recovery costs have already caused losses for companies. New protests could prolong this period: even operating retail outlets lose customers if people avoid city centers.
For the French economy with weak growth, this is an additional burden. Uncertainty can cause companies to delay investments and hiring, while the government will have to negotiate budget decisions amid public discontent.
The situation is also unfavorable for the euro. Political tension in one of the largest economies in the eurozone hinders confident capital inflow. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar supports EURUSD, and expectations of ECB decisions remain significant. Therefore, the French crisis is restraining the pair's recovery, but does not rule out short-term rallies.
Why this matters for #DAX30
France is a significant market for German manufacturers. A reduction in orders and consumer spending could affect suppliers from Germany. Moreover, political tension could reduce interest in European stocks as a whole.
However, the German market is supported by corporate earnings and external demand. A weaker euro also helps exporters. Therefore, #DAX30 may recover faster than the French index, even if the situation in France remains difficult.
Where sellers maintain an advantage
According to FreshForex analysts, the French crisis will continue to restrain the recovery of #CAC40 and the euro. For #DAX30, the main risk remains the spread of cautious sentiment to the European market.
As long as #CAC40 remains below 7 870–7 900, a retest of 7 800 with a possible further decline to 7 750. For EURUSD, failed attempts to hold above 1,1240–1,1260 will maintain the probability of a return to 1,1200, and then 1,1150.
For #DAX30, the nearest level is 25 400. A move below it will increase the likelihood of a pullback to 25 300–25 200. Holding above 25 400, on the contrary, will allow buyers to continue the recovery to 25 500.
Unrest in France has become a problem for investors as well. Damaged stores, business restrictions, and political uncertainty have added reasons to sell European stocks. On October 19, the French CAC 40 lost 1,11%, while the German DAX 1,18%.
France is preparing for a new wave of protests. Authorities announced increased security ahead of demonstrations on October 24 following unrest that affected Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and other cities. The curfew helped restore calm, but the threat of further business disruptions remains.
On the markets, tension coexists with recovery attempts. #CAC40 is trading around 7,850.0 points, #DAX30 at 25,416.3 points, EURUSD at 1.1223. Buyers have recovered part of the losses, but French risks continue to limit interest in European assets.
Businesses will have to pay for the consequences
Damage to stores, forced closures, and recovery costs have already caused losses for companies. New protests could prolong this period: even operating retail outlets lose customers if people avoid city centers.
For the French economy with weak growth, this is an additional burden. Uncertainty can cause companies to delay investments and hiring, while the government will have to negotiate budget decisions amid public discontent.
The situation is also unfavorable for the euro. Political tension in one of the largest economies in the eurozone hinders confident capital inflow. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar supports EURUSD, and expectations of ECB decisions remain significant. Therefore, the French crisis is restraining the pair's recovery, but does not rule out short-term rallies.
Why this matters for #DAX30
France is a significant market for German manufacturers. A reduction in orders and consumer spending could affect suppliers from Germany. Moreover, political tension could reduce interest in European stocks as a whole.
However, the German market is supported by corporate earnings and external demand. A weaker euro also helps exporters. Therefore, #DAX30 may recover faster than the French index, even if the situation in France remains difficult.
Where sellers maintain an advantage
According to FreshForex analysts, the French crisis will continue to restrain the recovery of #CAC40 and the euro. For #DAX30, the main risk remains the spread of cautious sentiment to the European market.
As long as #CAC40 remains below 7 870–7 900, a retest of 7 800 with a possible further decline to 7 750. For EURUSD, failed attempts to hold above 1,1240–1,1260 will maintain the probability of a return to 1,1200, and then 1,1150.
For #DAX30, the nearest level is 25 400. A move below it will increase the likelihood of a pullback to 25 300–25 200. Holding above 25 400, on the contrary, will allow buyers to continue the recovery to 25 500.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 26, 2026 EURUSD
EURUSD:
Moody's decision to maintain France's rating has weakened one of the near-term risks for the euro. On Friday, the rating remained at Aa3, although the outlook is still negative. After expectations of a downgrade, this gives the European currency reason to recover. However, budget disagreements and high borrowing costs continue to limit confidence in French assets.
The beginning of the week is also accompanied by a decline in US bond yields. This reduces the interest rate attractiveness of the dollar and helps EURUSD. The market mainly expects the Fed and ECB to maintain rates at upcoming meetings, so attention shifts to further signals from regulators. A pause by the Fed itself does not necessarily mean a refusal to raise rates subsequently.
Weak October business activity data in France remind us of the vulnerability of the regional economy. Therefore, improved sentiment following the rating decision does not eliminate all reasons for caution. A resumption of rising US yields or debt tension could bring pressure back on the euro. As long as these risks do not intensify, the combination of local relief and a weaker dollar supports the EURUSD growth scenario.
Trading idea: BUY 1.1220, SL 1.1195, TP 1.1275
EURUSD:
Moody's decision to maintain France's rating has weakened one of the near-term risks for the euro. On Friday, the rating remained at Aa3, although the outlook is still negative. After expectations of a downgrade, this gives the European currency reason to recover. However, budget disagreements and high borrowing costs continue to limit confidence in French assets.
The beginning of the week is also accompanied by a decline in US bond yields. This reduces the interest rate attractiveness of the dollar and helps EURUSD. The market mainly expects the Fed and ECB to maintain rates at upcoming meetings, so attention shifts to further signals from regulators. A pause by the Fed itself does not necessarily mean a refusal to raise rates subsequently.
Weak October business activity data in France remind us of the vulnerability of the regional economy. Therefore, improved sentiment following the rating decision does not eliminate all reasons for caution. A resumption of rising US yields or debt tension could bring pressure back on the euro. As long as these risks do not intensify, the combination of local relief and a weaker dollar supports the EURUSD growth scenario.
Trading idea: BUY 1.1220, SL 1.1195, TP 1.1275
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Analysis of margin levels for October 27, 2026 XAUUSD
XAUUSD: SELL 4027.22-4077.82, TP1-3976.72, TP2-3825.72.
Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4150.00–4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating strong selling pressure.
Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4160.00-4180.00 and 4120.00-4140.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below these ranges, indicating strong selling pressure.
The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 23.10.2026.
Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4: 4027.22.
Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2: 4077.82.
Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 23.10.2026 – 3976.72.
Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SWCZ – 3825.72.
Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.
Sell: 4027.22-4077.82, Take Profit 1 – 3976.72, Take Profit 2 – 3825.72.
XAUUSD: SELL 4027.22-4077.82, TP1-3976.72, TP2-3825.72.
Long-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4150.00–4200.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating strong selling pressure.
Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4160.00-4180.00 and 4120.00-4140.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below these ranges, indicating strong selling pressure.
The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 23.10.2026.
Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/4: 4027.22.
Quote for the lower boundary of zone 1/2: 4077.82.
Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 23.10.2026 – 3976.72.
Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the SWCZ – 3825.72.
Trading recommendations: sell from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.
Sell: 4027.22-4077.82, Take Profit 1 – 3976.72, Take Profit 2 – 3825.72.
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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 30 October 2026
XAUUSD: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92
For gold, the main check of the week will be the Fed's position. The market mostly expects to keep the rate on October 28, while the decline in US yields at the beginning of the week reduces the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets relative to metal. A weaker dollar also facilitates buying gold with other currencies. This combination creates conditions for XAUUSD recovery.
However, the expected pause does not yet mean the end of tightening: expensive energy supports inflationary risks and expectations of a December rate hike. The PCE release will test the sustainability of these concerns. As long as yields do not resume rising, the weekly scenario allows for gold strength; hard signals from the Fed or accelerating inflation could cancel this out.
Trading idea: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92
#SP500: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444
Reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon will be the main test for US stocks. After recent disappointments, investors are more closely evaluating the return on AI spending. Expected earnings growth supports the market, but high expectations raise the cost of weak forecasts. For #SP500, this maintains the risk of sales even with formal beats in estimates for the past quarter.
Declining US yields and a potential Fed pause ease the cost of money, however, the prospect of another rate hike limits this effect. Expensive energy simultaneously increases corporate costs and consumer expenses. As long as reports do not dispel doubts about future profits, the weekly priority remains index decline. Strong company forecasts could change this scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444
#BRENT: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18
Oil begins the week under the influence of new diplomatic efforts around Iran. Reports of Qatari mediation reduce fears of further supply deterioration and provide grounds to reduce the risk premium for disruptions. This supports the downside scenario for #BRENT, although negotiations have not yet confirmed either a sustainable cessation of conflict or a recovery in oil exports.
Threats to energy infrastructure and shipping remain, so the potential for cheaper prices depends on news regarding transport security. US inventory data will help assess raw material availability, but one cannot assume inventory growth as a fact in advance. With continued diplomatic contacts and no new major disruptions, pressure on oil may persist; escalation could quickly invalidate the sell idea.
Trading idea: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18
XAUUSD: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92
For gold, the main check of the week will be the Fed's position. The market mostly expects to keep the rate on October 28, while the decline in US yields at the beginning of the week reduces the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets relative to metal. A weaker dollar also facilitates buying gold with other currencies. This combination creates conditions for XAUUSD recovery.
However, the expected pause does not yet mean the end of tightening: expensive energy supports inflationary risks and expectations of a December rate hike. The PCE release will test the sustainability of these concerns. As long as yields do not resume rising, the weekly scenario allows for gold strength; hard signals from the Fed or accelerating inflation could cancel this out.
Trading idea: BUY 4011.92, SL 3946.92, TP 4154.92
#SP500: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444
Reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon will be the main test for US stocks. After recent disappointments, investors are more closely evaluating the return on AI spending. Expected earnings growth supports the market, but high expectations raise the cost of weak forecasts. For #SP500, this maintains the risk of sales even with formal beats in estimates for the past quarter.
Declining US yields and a potential Fed pause ease the cost of money, however, the prospect of another rate hike limits this effect. Expensive energy simultaneously increases corporate costs and consumer expenses. As long as reports do not dispel doubts about future profits, the weekly priority remains index decline. Strong company forecasts could change this scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 7634, SL 7714, TP 7444
#BRENT: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18
Oil begins the week under the influence of new diplomatic efforts around Iran. Reports of Qatari mediation reduce fears of further supply deterioration and provide grounds to reduce the risk premium for disruptions. This supports the downside scenario for #BRENT, although negotiations have not yet confirmed either a sustainable cessation of conflict or a recovery in oil exports.
Threats to energy infrastructure and shipping remain, so the potential for cheaper prices depends on news regarding transport security. US inventory data will help assess raw material availability, but one cannot assume inventory growth as a fact in advance. With continued diplomatic contacts and no new major disruptions, pressure on oil may persist; escalation could quickly invalidate the sell idea.
Trading idea: SELL 109.58, SL 112.78, TP 103.18
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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 28, 2026 USDJPY
Event to watch today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
USDJPY:
The yield on US ten-year bonds remains around 5%, maintaining the dollar's interest rate support against the yen ahead of the Fed's decision. In the absence of a signal for imminent policy easing, US assets may retain their appeal. However, the mere maintenance of the rate is already expected by the market and does not guarantee further USDJPY growth: December guidance will be decisive.
The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Friday; current expectations suggest a pause. Without a fresh signal to accelerate tightening, it is difficult for the yen to quickly close the interest rate gap. At the same time, rising inflation risks could prompt the Japanese regulator to adopt stricter stances, so the expectation of the meeting limits confidence in continued yen weakening.
Yesterday, the Japanese Finance Minister again stated readiness for decisive action in the foreign exchange market. This poses a specific risk to the bullish idea, although the warning does not yet mean an intervention has been carried out. As long as US yields remain stable, their support for the dollar only moderately outweighs this risk. The base scenario allows for an increase in USDJPY; a decline in yields after the Fed could cancel it out.
Trading idea: BUY 157.95, SL 157.60, TP 158.65
Event to watch today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision
USDJPY:
The yield on US ten-year bonds remains around 5%, maintaining the dollar's interest rate support against the yen ahead of the Fed's decision. In the absence of a signal for imminent policy easing, US assets may retain their appeal. However, the mere maintenance of the rate is already expected by the market and does not guarantee further USDJPY growth: December guidance will be decisive.
The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Friday; current expectations suggest a pause. Without a fresh signal to accelerate tightening, it is difficult for the yen to quickly close the interest rate gap. At the same time, rising inflation risks could prompt the Japanese regulator to adopt stricter stances, so the expectation of the meeting limits confidence in continued yen weakening.
Yesterday, the Japanese Finance Minister again stated readiness for decisive action in the foreign exchange market. This poses a specific risk to the bullish idea, although the warning does not yet mean an intervention has been carried out. As long as US yields remain stable, their support for the dollar only moderately outweighs this risk. The base scenario allows for an increase in USDJPY; a decline in yields after the Fed could cancel it out.
Trading idea: BUY 157.95, SL 157.60, TP 158.65
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Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 29, 2026 BTCUSD
BTCUSD: FLAT.
The Bitcoin situation continues to follow the previously analyzed wave scenario.
The price rose slightly, but sellers immediately reacted by actively pushing the price down, which caused the rate to return to its starting point for this rise.
However, it is unlikely that this marks the beginning of the final wave c of (y) of the assumed double zigzag. Most likely, we will see one more weak attempt to rise, after which the expected longer decline will occur.
Thus, there is no need to rush into opening short positions at this time. It is better to spend today's trading day observing price behavior.
Investment idea: FLAT.
BTCUSD: FLAT.
The Bitcoin situation continues to follow the previously analyzed wave scenario.
The price rose slightly, but sellers immediately reacted by actively pushing the price down, which caused the rate to return to its starting point for this rise.
However, it is unlikely that this marks the beginning of the final wave c of (y) of the assumed double zigzag. Most likely, we will see one more weak attempt to rise, after which the expected longer decline will occur.
Thus, there is no need to rush into opening short positions at this time. It is better to spend today's trading day observing price behavior.
Investment idea: FLAT.
Expert137 posts
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Oct 21, 2026 06:57